The impact of digital finance on the natural resource market: Evidence from DeFi, oil, and gold

The purpose of this study is to examine the interconnectedness between DeFi and natural resource assets in terms of return and volatility spillovers, as well as the effectiveness of hedging, utilizing the time and frequency domain causality test and the cross-quantilogram approach. To this end, we take into account the ChainLink (LINK) and Maker (MKR) prices for the DeFi market and use crude oil (WTI) and gold prices as proxies for the natural resources market. For this purpose, we observe the daily period from March 14, 2018, to August 15, 2022, in order to evaluate the portfolio diversification benefits during the Covid-19 epidemic. The findings from the time and frequency domain causality test reveal that the price and risk structure of natural resources such as crude oil and gold are influenced by digital finance instruments, particularly during times of crisis. Moreover, the results of the cross-quantilogram approach indicate that the significant cross-correlations between DeFi tokens and natural resource markets during bearish market periods are generally negative therefore DeFi tokens can provide effective hedging for gold and crude oil investors.

Risk transmissions between regional green economy indices: Evidence from the US, Europe and Asia

This paper examines the risk transmissions across the green economy indices of three major regions which include US, Europe and Asia. The econometric analyses are conducted using DCC-GARCH and TVP-VAR connectedness approach to evaluate potential spillover effects within the context of oil and gold. Results indicate that green economy indices of US-Europe exhibit the greatest time-varying correlations among the three pairs during much of 2010–2022 consistent with that of the general equity market. However, co-movements during the COIVD-19 pandemic period seem to display a change in pattern for green economy indices. The strength of the co-movements between the US and Europe displayed a declining trend, while that between US and Asia was strengthened, suggesting greater interdependence between these two markets. TVP-VAR connectedness analysis revealed that US and Europe dominate the transmission of the shocks across the years in the green economy, similar to that of the equity markets. However, during the pandemic a pronounced shift occurred in green economies when considering the risk transmissions within the context of commodities: oil and gold. While Asian green economy index was persistently a receiver of risk transmission from oil unlike the other two regions, since pandemic, oil displayed an asymmetric effect and has become the net transmitter of risk in negative returns of the green economies of US and Europe. This may reflect the diversion in environmental policies of the two regions in the recent past, and point to the dominance of energy sector in the green economy. These findings have substantial implications for the development of green economy policies and from an investment perspective.

The connectedness and risk spillovers between bitcoin spot and futures markets: evidence from intraday data

This paper examines the dynamic relation between Bitcoin spot and futures markets during the Covid-19 pandemic. Using hourly data from 2020 combined with quantile impulse response analysis and predictability in the distribution test, we attempt to ascertain whether spot or futures markets lead in the price discovery process under a variety of market conditions. Granger predictability based on the left tail, the right tail, and the center of the distribution show bidirectional predictability between spot and futures markets suggesting significant feedback effects following normal and extreme gains/losses where neither market dominates in price discovery. Using a CAViaR model and the associated impulse response functions with estimates for dynamic tail dependence, we document spillovers between quantiles of spot and futures returns. Estimates of impulse response functions at various risk levels show the futures market has an edge in influencing the spot market and figures more prominently in the price discovery process.

Regional green economy and community impact on global sustainability

Purpose This study aims to explore the impact of regional green economies and communities on global sustainability. This study attempts to show if the empirical results align with the regional sustainable development policy and practices. Design/methodology/approach Empirical analyses are conducted through time-varying correlations, structural break tests and volatility modeling. As a public health indicator, the community variable is proxied by the daily COVID-19 cases. Findings According to the results, the US green economy and global sustainability relationship exhibit a greater variety than that of Europe and Asia regions. Volatility modeling reveals that green economies are significant variables for each region in accounting for the changes in global sustainability. Europe and Asia have the highest and lowest effects in this interaction, respectively. The results are consistent with the carbon emission statistics of the regions studied and the government's efforts to promote sustainable development. Furthermore, this study supports the efforts of the European Union to tackle climate and environmental issues, as well as create a resource-efficient economy and truly prosperous society. Originality/value This study presents empirical findings concerning global sustainability by providing evidence from three regions. The outcomes on the extent of regional contribution to global sustainability may lead the policymakers to develop new strategies in the management of turmoil periods such as a pandemic.

Are carbon futures prices stable? New evidence during negative oil

We investigate volatility spillovers from West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil to carbon emission allowance futures, focusing on the period surrounding the WTI negative pricing event of April 2020. Results evidence, pre-negative WTI, a doubling of directional spillover from WTI oil to carbon allowance futures upon the global spread of COVID-19, with a sharp elevation of directional spillover from WTI oil to carbon allowances during the specific period of negative WTI. This extraordinary rise in directional spillover continued past the near-term contract through several ensuing contracts. Results suggest that carbon futures markets are highly sensitive to periods of fragility.

The source of financial contagion and spillovers: An evaluation of the covid-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis.

This study investigates the reaction of stock markets to the Covid-19 pandemic and the Global Financial Crisis of 2008 (GFC) and compares their influence in terms of risk exposures. The empirical investigation is conducted using the modified ICSS test, DCC-GARCH, and Diebold-Yilmaz connectedness analysis to examine financial contagion and volatility spillovers. To further reveal the impact of these two crises, the statistical features of tranquil and crisis periods under different time intervals are also compared. The test results show that although the outbreak's origin was in China, the US stock market is the source of financial contagion and volatility spillovers during the pandemic, just as it was during the GFC. The propagation of shocks is considerably higher between developed economies compared to emerging markets. Additionally, the results show that the COVID-19 pandemic induced a more severe contagious effect and risk transmission than the GFC. The study provides an extensive examination of the COVID-19 pandemic and the GFC in terms of financial contagion and volatility spillovers. The results suggest the presence of strong co-movements of world stock markets with the US equity market, especially in periods of financial turmoil.

The Australian Stock Market’s Reaction to the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic and Black Summer Bushfires: A Sectoral Analysis

In this study, we investigated the impact of the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic on various sectors of the Australian stock market. Market capitalization and equally weighted indices were formed for eleven Australian sectors to examine the influence of the pandemic on them. First, we examined the financial contagion between the Chinese stock market and Australian sector indices through the dynamic conditional correlation fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (DCC-FIGARCH) model. We found high time-varying correlations between the Chinese stock market and most of the Australian sector indices, with the financial, health care, information technology, and utility sectors displaying a decrease in co-movements during the pandemic. The Modified Iterative Cumulative Sum of Squares (MICSS) analysis results indicated the presence of structural breaks in the volatilities of most of the sector indices around the end of February 2020, but consumer staples, industry, information technology and real estate indices did not display any break. Markov regime-switching regression analysis depicted that the pandemic has mainly affected three sectors: consumer staples, industry, and real estate. When we considered the firm size, we found that smaller companies in the energy sector exhibited gradual deterioration, whereas small firms in the consumer staples sector experienced the largest positive impact from the pandemic.

COVID-19 social distancing and the US service sector: What do we learn?

This study investigates the impact of COVID-19 social distancing on the US service sector. Results from four industry indexes (hotels, entertainment, restaurants and airlines) indicate that conditional correlations among index pairs exhibited substantial increases. Iterated Cumulative Sums of Squares (ICSS) tests in dynamic conditional correlations show that while the relationship between airlines and entertainment venues is unstable, restaurants and hotels demonstrate stable co-movement. Markov regime-switching regression analysis suggests the pandemic is affecting mainly the entertainment and airline industries, with gradual deterioration in the hotel industry, led by small-market-cap companies. However, we see no evidence of a negative impact on the restaurant industry from the pandemic in our analysis period. This may be related to Maslow's hierarchy of needs. Based on our results, we recommend employment of effective working capital and supply chain management methods in the service sector to streamline the operations of affected companies. In addition, all other sectors should utilize appropriate methods of risk measurement and should take 'Black Swans' into account to incorporate a more accurate probability of unexpected events.

Co-movements and spillovers of oil and renewable firms under extreme conditions: New evidence from negative WTI prices during COVID-19.

We test for the existence of volatility spillovers and co-movements among energy-focused corporations during the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, inclusive of the April 2020 events where West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil future prices became negative. Employing the spillover index approach of Diebold and Yilmaz (2012); as well as developing a DCC-FIGARCH conditional correlation framework and using estimated spillover indices built on a generalised vector autoregressive framework in which forecast-error variance decompositions are invariant to the variable ordering, we examine the sectoral transmission mechanisms of volatility shocks and contagion throughout the energy sector. Among several results, we find positive and economically meaningful spillovers from falling oil prices to both renewable energy and coal markets. However, this result is only found for the narrow portion of our sample surrounding the negative WTI event. We interpret our results being directly attributed to a sharp drop in global oil, gas and coal demand, rather than because of a sudden increase in oil supply. While investors observed the US fracking industry losing market share to coal, they also viewed renewables as more reliable mechanism to generate long-term, stable and low-cost supply.

Comparing COVID-19 with the GFC: A shockwave analysis of currency markets.

I analyze the shockwave effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on currency markets, with a comparison to the global financial crisis (GFC), employing Kapetanios m-break unit root test, investigations of standalone risk measures-downside variance, upside risk, volatility skewness, Gaussian Value at Risk (VaR), historical VaR, modified VaR-and Diebold-Yilmaz volatility spillover analysis. Standalone risk analysis shows that the turmoil in the initial months of COVID-19 was not as severe as that in the GFC. However, examination of co-movements and volatility spillovers illustrates a different scenario. According to the results of the static connectedness measure of Diebold-Yilmaz, the shockwave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the total volatility spillover is about eight times greater than that of the GFC. Among standalone risk measures, the results closest to this finding are obtained from volatility skewness analysis. Additionally, of six foreign exchange rates, the Brazilian real and Turkish lira are the currencies experiencing the greatest increase in received volatility during the GFC and the COVID-19 pandemic, respectively. These findings suggest the severe effect of crises on emerging financial markets.